![]() Hurricane intensity forecasts, in terms of accuracy, notoriously lag track forecasts so it is important not to make any assumptions about Ian. Ironically, Hurricane Michael (2018) rapidly intensified in a similar region even with some wind shear present. That could be enough to knock the storm down in intensity, but it will still likely be a very problematic hurricane. If there is any good news, wind shear is expected to be more unfavorable as Ian gets close to the coast. It is like a powder keg ready to explode. The National Hurricane Center notes, “Once the circulation become more vertically coherent, low vertical wind shear conditions and high ocean heat content are expected to allow for rapid intensification while Ian moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.” The waters in the Gulf of Mexico are also warm and have not really been mixed by storms this summer. For the next few days, Ian will be in a favorable environment for strengthening. Ian will likely be a hurricane as it approaches Cuba and will potential be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The other concern for me is about the potential for rapid intensification. In a nutshell, that’s where we are with Ian. To improve the prediction of the fluid flow, the mathematical model needs initial conditions of the river, boundary changes, the initial spin characteristics of the ball and other impediments to narrow uncertainty. Imagine if we wanted to predict where a spinning beach ball would be downstream after placing it in the Mississippi River near St. We offer long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, NW Pacific, SW Pacific and. Climate models like the CFSv2, CanSIPS, and NMME provide monthly to seasonal forecasts. The mesoscale hurricane models HAFS, HWRF, and GFDL are run on tropical disturbances and storms. The National Hurricane Center stated in its Sunday morning discussion, “Due to the current lack of center definition, the initial motion estimate is somewhat uncertain.” Though not perfect, here’s an analogy I often use. Mesoscale models for the United States include the NAM in various forms, the HRRR, several other WRF variants, and the Canadian RGEM and HRDPS. Euro won’t let go and that gives EM officials only a few days to react vs GFS (in regards to say, Tampa).” The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center (1st graphic in this article) will likely shift as I expect (and hope) once the storm is better defined, it will give the models improved starting conditions. ![]() ![]() He said, “The problem is we have two solutions, the panhandle and the west coast, but because we're dealing with a hurricane, we have to prepare for all locations threatened, people think one or the other, in this case it's both, prepare in both locations.” Hurricane Tracker Mark Sudduth echoed that same concern. Hurricane meteorologist Craig Setzer’s tweet sums up the challenge from a preparation perspective. ![]()
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